Monday, January 10, 2005

Bob Cringely's predictions of 2005 are out

Okay at last, after a long wait, it is out
you can see them here
I kinda big fan of Bob by now, But not necessary he will be always rite, he was not rite even on all points in 2004, and one point about which I disagree this time is:
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12) There is no evidence that Sun will change its current course, which is inexorably downward. I know Jonathan Schwartz thinks I'm crazy, but so far I am more right than he is, and hear no reason coming from him why that should change.
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I wish he will be wrong about this, But I can't see anything big plan also from Sun in this year, Apart from Mustang(JDK 1.6) which will be out sometimes in mid 2005
But yes I agree strongly with his 10th point
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10) In 2005, the major beneficiaries of the Peoplesoft-Oracle merger will be SAP and IBM, NOT Peoplesoft or Oracle customers, despite anything Larry Ellison says ("Oversupport" Peoplesoft customers? -- sheesh).
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So lets see what goes this year, But I am just wondernig is Bob is trying to play safe this year, Otherwise why didn't he made any predictions over
- iPod future
- Outsourcing halla
Are u there Bob ? :)

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Actually, I'm seeing a ton of folks throwing Red Hat out and installing Solaris - if that trend continues, something tells me Bob's going to be wrong. Sun actually made Solaris *free* as in beer... one up'ing Linux.

Hemant said...

Agree Solaris is *free*
But how much of money it will make flow to Sun...
Not much, But I guess still solaris 10 is doing good, Indeed I love dtrace :)

Anonymous said...

Every machine that's running Solaris isn't running Red Hat - and it's far easier to see how Sun makes money on Solaris-based systems than to figure out how IBM makes money on Red Hat systems...

Hemant said...

I think it is easy for you to figure out bcoz you have seen the last working model,where Solaris use to be shipped with Sparc systems,
But now with x86 FREE solaris...It will be gona not same, Though itwill be still much more higher than what java brings in as direct or indirect revenue, this is the reason you can see all those efforts to slowly open source it(mustang(1.6) is available on java.net now bi-weekly i guess)